Wiper Party Leader is a man in a dilemma. Political Pundits are wondering what is next for Kalonzo Musyoka?
He is faced with a rebellion and stiff competition in his Ukambani support base and there are new entrants in the race for Ukambani votes.
Ukambani and Luhyaland are the only regions with several leaders who individually can run for the Presidency. Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu sees herself as Presidential material and ran for office in 1997.
Ngilu has never outrightly endorsed Kalonzo as the Kamba political chief and perceives she is better than him. Makueni Governor Kivutha Kibwana and Machakos Governor Alfred Mutual also fe Presidential. Apart from Prof Kibwana, the others did not ride on the Wiper party and ran on their own parties.
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Prof Kibwana is also the leader of the Muugano party that he used to get elected to Parliament. He is poised to go back to that party now that he kicked out of Wiper and is not interested in Wiper affairs
Kalonzo’s 2022 problem is compounded by the fact that his key financier former Machakos Senator Johnstone Muthama has thrown his weight behind Deputy President William Ruto.
Muthama shifting to Ruto’s corner is a big blow to Kalonzo both financially and politically. Muthama is not only a financier but also a superb mobilizer. Muthama has all along been the man with balls in Wiper. He is the man who has been urging on Kalonzo to play tough with the Uhuru leadership.
Kalonzo now solely depends on the government to finance his party activities. One of the remaining financiers, Mr. Muthoka will only finance him as long as he is on the side of government. This explains the reason he defected to the government side.
What is next for Kalonzo Musyoka is the big question?
With Governors Kibwana and Mutua doing their last terms, they will be forced to look for ways of remaining politically active and relevant. They can only go for positions equivalent to or higher than their current positions. Their choices are limited.
Will they vie for President, Deputy President or negotiate for positions as CSs in the next government? In political negotiations, you start by bargaining for a high position to leverage for a softer landing, the job you are actually aiming for. foresee them going for President or running mate.
As for Ngilu, I think it’s smart if she remains at her current position as Governor. This will not only allow her to finish her projects if she wins but will also give her space and time to watch the other fellows and how things unfold until 2027
Kalonzo being the perceived Ukambani supremo has no choice but to run for President. If he doesn’t he’s damned and doomed since Kibwana and/or Mutua will steal the limelight if either goes for President or becomes a running mate.
Whoever does this will paint Kalonzo as a joker not committed to taking the Kamba nation to Statehouse (Kalonzo has been a running mate in two successive elections). That person will in that event take away the Kamba vote (if not all but a good chunk).
It may be for this uncomfortable position that Kalonzo is in a hurry to enter into a coalition deal with Jubilee. He wants to be in the house before Kibwana, Ngilu, and Mutua. Kalonzo is in panic mode. He knows that the Kamba vote is slipping away.
Without money from Muthama and other enablers, Kalonzo must play first and fast.