I rarely disagree with the Rt.Hon.Raila Odinga on anything but I want to disagree with him on the position that we never lost in Msambweni because Feisal Bader has been an ODM member.
I will use a very simple example. If today we had another by-election in Kwale, Feisal will support governor Mvurya’s candidate and not an ODM candidate. Feisal has a trusted ally in governor Mvurya a Jubilee governor than ODM starting yesterday.
Kwale county is not going back to ODM in 2022, Mvurya has significantly changed the Kwale politics. The people will vote Raila but will go for any best candidate in other positions, the party not withstanding.
Mombasa county is likely not to go back to ODM in 2022 because Suleiman Shabhal the top contender is still in Jubilee despite being a friend to Baba. Omar Hassan another potential left ODM.
The Mvita MP Abdulswamad and Mishi Mboko who will be the face of ODM in Mombasa after the exit of Joho cannot deliver the Mombasa gubernatorial race on their own because even their re-election has largely depended on governor Joho.
Kilifi has high chances of going back to ODM because Mungaro and opponents have started warming up to ODM.
Lamu will not go to ODM whereas Taita Taveta is 70/30 against ODM because Wiper is not letting that position go easily and Samboja is crafty. The ODM ground in coast is quickly diminishing.
When we look at the ODM strongholds in Rift Valley, Kajiado went to Jubilee after Nkedianye lost to Ole Lenku. Narok Senator Ledama Ole Kina might not vie for the governor position in Narok on an ODM ticket because he wants to beat the Ntutus, he needs the backing of the Tangatanga faction led by governor Tunai.
Turkana has been handed to Tangatanga by the ODM governor Nanok who is seriously killing the party in Turkana. Munyes, the top contender will not be vying on an ODM ticket.
Trans-Nzoia is a 70/30 against ODM because Ford Kenya will not let that position go easily. Vihiga is likely to go to ANC if Akaranga joins Mudavadi-Wetangula merger to wrestle governor Otchillo.
Wetangula might go for the Bungoma governor with Ford Kenya or the merger with ANC to replace Wangamati.
Kakamega is likely not to go Back to ODM after the exit of Oparanya because top contenders like Malala, Khalwale, Echesa, Savula are not in ODM and could follow the Mudavadi- Wetangula merger.
Busia might equally not go back to ODM because Otuoma the top contender is likely to join the Mudavadi-Wetangula merger and vie using ANC because of what happened to him in the last elections.
In Kisii, Prof.Ongeri could be the ODM governor but Joash Maangi is too fast. He’s probably the craftiest Deputy Governor in Kenya and if not careful, he could short change ODMs Prof. Ongeri.
Nyamira is likely not to go back to ODM because all the top contenders eyeing the gubernatorial position are not in ODM maybe Okongo Omogeni saves the party but the politics there is too volatile.
In short, ODM is losing ground in its strongholds and Baba needs to crack the whip before it’s too late. Allow new faces in the strategy room with no vested interests to protect with sycophancy and outright bias.
People who are ready to offend the Rt.Hon.Raila with truth in their line of duty to strengthen the party and restore it’s former glory. People who value every little effort by supporters from every corner of this country. We do not want to be disappointed against in 2022 because of disorganization.